Official UK data shows how Covid poses a tiny threat to children

Just one in 300,000 children who test positive for Covid die and even youngsters who haven’t been vaccinated face a tiny risk of succumbing to the illness, according to UK Government data.  

Figures published by the Department of Health highlight the tiny risk children face from coronavirus, which becomes deadlier the older a person is.

They show around one in 330,000 boys aged between 10 and 14 and one in 200,000 girls of the same age who test positive for Covid end up dying. The rates include both healthy children and those with underlying health conditions which put them at a much higher risk of death.

Separate figures also show unvaccinated children also face smaller odds of succumbing to the illness than fully-vaccinated adults in their twenties — another age-group known to be at little risk.

Britain’s vaccine advisory panel, the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), has said that the risk of Covid death in a healthy child is around one in 2million.

For comparison, the figures suggest one in every 25 people over the age of 90 who catch Covid succumb to the disease. For people in their 80s it is about one in 90 and those in their 60s have a death rate of about one per 1,000 — rates which have been drastically slashed by vaccines.

Scientists today said the findings for children were ‘reassuring’. It comes after millions of 12 to 15-year-olds were made eligible for a single dose of Pfizer’s jab last week. 

The JCVI said earlier this month that immunising them would only provide ‘marginal’ benefit to their health, which was not enough to advise a mass rollout.

But the experts recommended that ministers sought the advice of Professor Chris Whitty and the chief medical officers in the devolved nations. They came down in favour of expanding the inoculation drive after weighing up the wider benefits to children, claiming that hundreds of thousands of school absences could be prevented.  

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Latest official figures show that within 28 days of testing positive for the virus, 0.5 girls aged 10 to 14 will die from the virus per 100,000. The figure for boys of the same age is 0.3 per 100,000

Public Health England’s report also showed Britons were up to ten times more likely to die from Covid if they were unvaccinated than if they had received both jabs. The above graph shows the Covid death rate among people who had not been jabbed (red) compared to those who had received both doses (blue). The data is for August only and England. The rate for Covid deaths was worked out by dividing the total number of vaccinated and unvaccinated people who died with the virus by the total number of people in each category in the population in England

Public Health England’s report showed unvaccinated people were up to five times more likely to be hospitalised with Covid in August compared to those who had got both doses. The above graph shows the Covid hospitalisation rate among the unvaccinated (grey) compared to the vaccinated (black). The rate for Covid hospitalisation was worked out by dividing the total number of vaccinated and unvaccinated people who were admitted to hospital with the virus by the total number of people in each category in the population in England

Earlier this month the JCVI said it could not recommend Covid jabs for healthy 12 to 15-year-olds because the direct benefit to their health was only marginal. It also looked at the risk of health inflammation – known as myocarditis – in young people given the Pfizer vaccine, which was still very small but slightly more common after a second dose

Latest official figures show that within 28 days of testing positive for the virus, 0.5 girls aged 10 to 14 will die from the virus per 100,000. The figure for boys of the same age is 0.3 per 100,000.

Covid is deadlier as people get older — but the risk among 15 to 19-year-olds is still low at 1.1 per 100,000 for girls and 1.9 per 100,000 for boys. 

Meanwhile, men aged 50 to 54 face a 72.8 per 100,000 risk of dying once becoming infected, while the figure for women is 43.8.

The risk rises dramatically among the oldest groups, with 4,092 women aged over 90 who catch the virus dying per 100,000, while the figure is 6,035 for men.

Earlier this month, the JCVI said just two healthy children per million would be admitted to hospital for Covid, while those with underlying conditions were more at risk – at 100 per million.

Meanwhile, three to 17 children per million were estimated to develop rare vaccine side effect myocarditis after receiving a single dose of Pfizer. The figure rose to 12 to 34 per million after the second dose.

The graph shows the relative impact on different age groups and appears negative among those aged under 15 because so few deaths have been recorded in the group

Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show 23 children aged 14 and under who died this year had the virus listed on their death certificate.

This doesn’t mean the virus was the underlying cause in all cases, but catching the virus may have contributed to their death.  

The number of children aged five to 14 who will die from the virus is 14 per million, according to estimates from the chief medical officers, which is lower than the risk posed from seasonal flu infections.

And the proportion of children who develop Covid symptoms and require hospital care is 0.1 per cent for under-nines and 0.3 per cent for 10 to 19-year-olds.

Professor Paul Hunter, an expert in medicine at the University of East Anglia, told MailOnline: ‘JCVI believes that the health benefits of immunizing 12 to 16 year olds is marginal and I think they are right. 

‘Because younger age groups are even less likely to suffer severe consequences from Covid and possibly be more at risk of myocarditis. 

‘I do not think JCVI would support immunising children under 11 and I think they would be right.’

But he warned it is difficult to interpret official death data, because it includes fatalities where Covid was a ‘coincidental finding’ as well as people who died from the virus.

This is ‘less of an issue’ among older groups because the proportion of all deaths that were due to Covid was high, but could be more inaccurate among children because there was so few deaths. 

He added: ‘Of course death is not the only adverse outcome of Covid, so should not be all the reason why we decide whether or not to vaccinate any particular age group. 

‘But all the evidence points to younger age groups having less severe non-fatal disease anyway.’

Professor Helen Bedford, an expert in children’s health at University College London Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health: ‘It is reassuring that the latest figures from the Department of Health confirm children and young people to be at very low risk of dying from Covid. 

‘The recent decision to offer Covid vaccine to young people over the age of 12 years is based on its wider benefits such as reducing disruption to schooling. 

‘A recent UK study showing that most over 12-year-olds were willing to accept the vaccine suggests the programme will be successful.’ 

Professor David Livermore, a microbiologist at the University of East Anglia, told MailOnline: ‘Vaccination of the elderly and vulnerable is clearly of benefit. Given that vaccine efficacy fades over time, boosters are likely to be warranted for these folks.

‘The figures don’t however justify vaccinating healthy children, whose death rate from Covid is tiny, at around 0.1 to 1.9 per 100,000.

‘What is more, most of the few children who have died had underlying health issues. There is general agreement, and a recommendation from the JCVI, that this minority of unwell children should be vaccinated.’